Lie vs Truth
Fact-Checking Representative Baumgartner's Tax Flyer - Updated
Did you get Baumgartner’s flyer in the mail last week? Two versions were sent out—those in Spokane City received a glossy, full-size expensive flyer, all funded by taxpayer money. Meanwhile, residents in Spokane County only got a half-sheet version. I guess the County doesn’t meet the criteria for a full-sized issue.
Spokane Indivisible’s Advocacy Team quickly got to work investigating every statement Baumgartner presented as fact. It turns out Baumgartner cherry-picked the data. Shocking! - (said with as much sarcasm as I can muster).
Lie vs Truth
Lie vs. Truth: Fact-Checking Rep. Baumgartner’s Tax Flyer
Congressman Michael Baumgartner’s recent flyer, “Baumgartner Delivers Tax Savings,” is full of misleading claims about the 2017 Trump tax cuts, border security, and benefits for everyday Americans. We fact-checked both sides of the flyer using nonpartisan and government sources. Here’s what we found.
Lie:
The 2017 Trump tax cuts “raised annual real wages by $2,100 to $3,300 per worker.”
Truth:
Real wages for most workers remained flat after the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). According to the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service (CRS), most of the law’s benefits went to corporations and the wealthy. Any wage boosts were small and short-lived, often wiped out by inflation.
Source: CRS Report R45736 (July 2019)
Lie:
“Stops illegal immigrants from receiving Medicaid and other benefits.”
Truth:
Undocumented immigrants are already barred from nearly all federal benefits, including Medicaid. This claim misleads by implying large-scale abuse that doesn’t exist. Emergency care is provided regardless of status—for public health, not fraud.
Source: KFF
Lie:
“$150 billion is allocated for drones, advanced systems, and a military pay raise.”
Truth:
The statement is partly accurate since the Big Beautiful Bill does allocate $150 billion for defense, including significant investments in drones, advanced systems, and quality-of-life improvements for military personnel, such as barracks and housing upgrades. However, it exaggerates by suggesting the entire $150 billion is solely dedicated to drones, systems, and a pay raise, whereas the funding also covers other defense priorities. The 3.8% pay raise is linked to the broader 2026 defense budget, not specifically to the reconciliation bill. While Congress consistently funds defense, associating military spending with this particular tax or immigration bill is misleading, as these are part of separate, annual defense appropriations and not directly tied to tax reform.
Source: Air and Space Forces
Lie:
“Border security is the lowest level in modern history.”
Truth:
This is demonstrably false. U.S. Border Patrol staffing, tech, and surveillance
funding are at record highs. Metrics fluctuate, but spending and resources have
only increased as confirmed by the Trump White House.
Lies From the Flip Side of the Flyer
Rep. Baumgartner’s flyer also promotes fear about the expiration of the 2017 tax cuts. Here’s what’s really happening:
Lie:
If the tax cuts expire, “your taxes [will] skyrocket.”
Truth:
This statement is false. Taxes for lower and middle-income citizens may rise
slightly (not skyrocket) if individual TCJA provisions expire, but this is a separate
issue from corporate tax cuts, which do not expire. This aligns with current tax
policy and official IRS guidance as of July 1, 2025.
Source: Tax Brackets
Lie:
“I couldn’t let the average family be hit with over $1,400 in new taxes.”
Truth:
This $1,400 figure is misleading. The bulk of the TCJA’s benefits went to the top 1%. Allowing the cuts to expire would reduce inequality and help close a widening budget deficit.
Source: 2026 Tax Brackets if the TCJA Expires
Lie:
“You have to work to get Medicaid if you’re not disabled.”
Truth:
Federal courts have repeatedly blocked Medicaid work requirements, which cause many to lose coverage without improving employment. Many recipients already work or face barriers to work, especially in rural areas.
Sources: TPC
Lie:
“92% of WA-05 taxpayers would see their Guaranteed Deduction cut in half.”
Truth:
This cherry-picked stat ignores that personal exemptions would also return. For many families, the overall impact would be minimal or offset by other provisions.
Source: Tax Policy Center
Lie:
“7,103 Family-Owned Farms could see their Death Tax Exemption cut in half.”
Truth:
Research from 2025 confirms that only about 0.1-0.2% of estates pay estate tax.
The top 10% of income earners pay over 90% of estate tax with the top 0.1% pay
nearly 30%, highlighting it hits the ultra-wealthy. The notion that regular family
farms are significantly impacted is a myth, with very few farms facing the tax and
most able to manage it without selling.
Source: TPC
Lie:
“The Child Tax Credit would be cut in half.”
Truth:
The most effective version of the CTC—expanded under the American Rescue Plan—expired due to lack of bipartisan support. The 2017 law only modestly increased the credit, and it failed to make the anti-poverty expansion permanent.
Source: CNBC
Final Thoughts
Rep. Baumgartner’s flyer uses cherry-picked data, misleading figures, and emotional framing to distort the truth about tax policy, immigration, and federal benefits. Independent analysis shows the real winners of the 2017 Trump tax cuts were corporations and the wealthy, not working families.
When evaluating political claims, always follow the facts.
Written and fact-checked using reports from CRS, CBPP, KFF, Brookings, the IRS, CBO, and more. All sources are nonpartisan and publicly accessible.
BBB-Bill passed in the last hour
In the past hour, the Big Beautiful BS Bill passed in the Senate and is now heading back to the House, meaning Baumgartner gets another chance to vote.
Let’s ensure he faces significant pushback from his constituents. Over 200,000 people in Eastern WA will lose their Medicaid/Apple Health, many will become homeless, children will go hungry, veterans will lose essential services, rural clinics will shut down, and elderly residents will be forced out of nursing homes.
Your calls can make a difference.
Every call is documented, and MB will take notice. At some point, he will have to choose between 45 and those who he hopes will vote for him in 2026. He will only serve one term as Eastern Washington Representative if he chooses 45.
Your voice matters - call today.
We have the power!
Breathe. Resist. Rest. Repeat.
Sami
Spokane Indivisible Team
Could we do a flyer to dispute what he’s putting out there?